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| Bombing in Peru Sends Message To Bush |
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Posted by FoM on March 21, 2002 at 17:20:07 PT Summary & Analysis Source: Stratfor.com 
A bombing in Lima, Peru, just days before a summit between Andean leaders and U.S. President George W. Bush was likely the work of Peruvian insurgent group Shining Path. The incident may have been meant to warn the United States about deepening its military involvement in the region. The move could easily backfire, however, because Andean leaders may be more willing to support a larger U.S. military presence following the violence. A car bomb exploded at 10:45 p.m. local time on March 20, less than 100 meters from the U.S. Embassy in Lima, Peru.
The explosion came less than three days before U.S. President George W. Bush is due to arrive in Lima for a 17-hour meeting with the vice president of Ecuador and the presidents of Peru and Bolivia. No one has taken credit for the bombing yet, but Peruvian and U.S. officials in Lima believe the leftist insurgent group Shining Path was probably responsible. With the Bush administration preparing to expand the U.S. military presence in Colombia and other Andean countries, it is possible the bomb was intended as a message that U.S. citizens and assets will become political targets if Washington deepens its engagement in the Andean region's war against drugs and insurgents. The incident will intensify discussion at the Andean summit over ways to crack down on the growing links between insurgent groups and the drug trade. Rather than dissuade Washington from becoming more involved in the region, the bombing could in fact solidify support among Andean and U.S. leaders for greater and more immediate engagement in Colombia and neighboring countries. Nine people were killed and more than 40 injured when a car packed with 110 pounds of explosives blew up. A group of policemen had become suspicious and were attempting to evacuate the area when the detonation occurred, Peru's Interior Minister Fernando Rospigliosi said March 21. The explosion rocked Lima's El Polo commercial center, destroying nearby shops and cars. The U.S. Embassy, located across a wide street from the commercial center, was not damaged. The resurgent Maoist group Shining Path is the most likely suspect behind the bombing. Shining Path and another leftist group, the Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement, were together responsible for an estimated 30,000 deaths and $25 billion in financial losses in Peru between 1980 and the mid-1990s, after which Shining Path was almost completely wiped out. However, the group has been forging a comeback during the past two years. It is building its revival on the back of the drug trade, adopting a growth model used successfully by Colombia's largest guerrilla group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). In fact Peruvian, Colombian and U.S. officials believe Shining Path has established links with Colombian drug traffickers trying to increase coca and poppy cultivation in Peru and that Shining Path and the FARC have developed links with each other as well. This model fits Shining Path like a glove. What remains of the group operates primarily in remote areas of Peru where central government authority is least prevalent -- a situation conducive for the cultivation and trafficking of coca and poppy plants. As Shining Path's involvement in the drug trade has grown, so too have the number of violent conflicts with the government. In what could have been a foreshadowing of the March 20 bombing, officials from the government's anti-terrorism unit captured two Shining Path members last November who had architectural plans in their possession. The arrests led local officials to allege that Shining Path was planning to bomb the U.S. Embassy. Local officials immediately pointed to Shining Path as the top suspect in the latest incident. Hector John Caro, a former chief of Peru's anti-terrorism police, told Reuters the car bombing has all the markings of Shining Path's near-constant attacks of a decade ago. Though there are other potential suspects -- ranging from professional drug traffickers to groups or individuals embittered against the United States over Washington's treatment of now-imprisoned Peruvian spy chief Vladimiro Montesinos -- none has a stronger combination of motivation and capability than Shining Path. STRATFOR wrote Feb. 6 that "Shining Path's resurgence likely will lead to an increase in rural and urban terrorist actions in Peru during the next one or two years, creating unexpected security headaches for (Peruvian) President Alejandro Toledo." We likely saw the beginning of the process March 20. But the headache is not Toledo's alone. Considering the timing of the explosion, the message was meant for a wider audience, including other Andean leaders and, more specifically, for Bush. The attack may have been exclusively a Shining Path action meant to discourage the United States from becoming more deeply involved in Peru as it ramps up activity in Colombia. There has been rampant speculation in the Peruvian press that the U.S. military will expand its presence in northern Peru along the Colombian border. Shining Path members may fear that such a presence will be used against them as well, frustrating their attempts to expand coca and poppy production. Another possibility is that the FARC sub-contracted the bombing to Shining Path to deliver an even wider message: that it is ready to inflict serious pain on the United States -- not only in Colombia but also elsewhere in South America -- if Washington wades deeper into Colombia's civil war. This makes the Andean summit one to watch. Colombian President Andres Pastrana will be seeking greater personal commitment from Bush to support Bogota in its war against the FARC. Bush, meanwhile, may look to capitalize on the Lima bombing to sell his plan for a greater U.S. military presence in the region and to make his case for erasing the distinction between the drug war and the war against terrorism. Cooperation with Washington is a trickier issue for other Andean leaders, however. Although the leaders of Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador are generally eager for more aid to combat the drug trade, domestic opposition to a larger U.S. military footprint is significant. But this week's bombing may soften that opposition -- at least in violence-weary Peru -- opening the door for a greater U.S. presence in the region. Source: StratFor.com Related Articles & Web Site: Colombia Drug War News Compensation Offered for Plane Shot Down U.S. To Resume Shooting Down Drug Planes U.S. Shares Fault In Peru Incident Home Comment Email Register Recent Comments Help |
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| Comment #1 posted by Nuevo Mexican on March 21, 2002 at 21:00:31 PT |
| This looks like another bomb planted by the bush 'minstation
to open the door to the '911 fear matrix'. Notice mini-me has total confidence that he will not be targeted, Notice no one has claimed responsibility as is done normally within minutes or hours of the explosion. Hmmmmm, I know who's behind this, do you? Read the statement below from the above article for confirmation.... Cooperation with Washington is a trickier issue for other Andean leaders, however. Although the leaders of Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador are generally eager for more aid to combat the drug trade, domestic opposition to a larger U.S. military footprint is significant. But this week's bombing may soften that opposition -- at least in violence-weary Peru -- opening the door for a greater U.S. presence in the region. [ Post Comment ] |
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